Who will be the pope in the future? These are a few potential applicants.

  GPG NEWS 24- Rome

“Enter as Pope, Leave as Cardinal”: The High Stakes of the Next Conclave

There’s a timeworn Vatican saying: “He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal.” In other words, the presumed favorite to become pope often ends up empty-handed. No one walks into the Sistine Chapel with a guaranteed ticket to the papacy.

This was proven in 2013. Back then, Cardinal Angelo Scola of Milan was considered the top contender. Italian church leaders were so confident of his victory that one senior official mistakenly congratulated journalists after seeing the white smoke—only to realize moments later that Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio had become Pope Francis.

Now, as the Church prepares for another conclave, the stakes are even higher. This election will determine the future direction of the Roman Catholic Church, and thanks to Pope Francis’ sweeping reforms, the playing field is more open than ever.

During his pontificate, Francis changed the makeup of the College of Cardinals, the body that will elect the next pope, giving it a broader, more global character. He abandoned the long-held tradition of elevating bishops from historically prestigious dioceses, especially in Italy. Instead, he awarded red hats to bishops from often-overlooked regions like Tonga, Papua New Guinea, and Haiti.

This reshuffling has made the outcome harder to predict—many of the new cardinals are unfamiliar to Vatican insiders and less tied to traditional voting blocs.

Despite the unpredictability, only a handful of cardinals are seen as “papabile,” or plausible candidates for the papacy. Electors will be weighing not only the Church’s priorities, but also whether the next pope should continue Francis’ path of reform—or chart a new course.

Qualities like global vision and moral credibility will be critical. Some believe the next pope could come from Asia, signaling the Church’s future might lie there. Age will also be a factor—recent conclaves have favored older candidates for shorter pontificates.

Among the emerging names:

• Cardinal Mario Grech (68) of Malta, who leads the Church’s synod office, is seen as a unifying figure.

• Cardinal Stephen Chow (65), the Bishop of Hong Kong, is admired for his diplomatic finesse and pastoral care.

• Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (60), the Italian Patriarch of Jerusalem, earned respect for his leadership during the Israel-Hamas war.

• Cardinal Jaime Spengler (64) of Brazil, head of both the Brazilian bishops’ conference and the Latin American Episcopal Council, is also gaining attention for his leadership.

While frontrunners are emerging, surprises are always possible. In the end, the conclave will be shaped as much by the personalities inside the Sistine Chapel as by the quiet currents of global Catholicism outside it.